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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

But the current field is profoundly different. The group of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners declining and longtime underperformers improving collectively. In an normal year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a wild and fun year, he's facing five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still