Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
